Written from 24 named sources · Oct 30 · first result Is the Group of Six Getting Raided — and Can It Withstand It? Snapshot date: October 30, 2026 Scope: American Athletic Conference (renamed American in July 2025 [18]), Conference USA (C-USA), Mid-American Conference (MAC), Mountain West Conference (MWC), Pac-12 Conference, and Sun Belt Conference (SBC), classified by 2026 membership. Time frame: Transfer portal cycles from the 2021-22 offseason through the 2026 cycle. Executive Summary This report finds that upward movement from the Group of Six (G6) to the Power Four (P4) is real and documented, but its system-wide size, concentration, and competitive consequences cannot be measured from the available evidence. The primary transfer dataset, CollegeFootballData.com, was not supplied as a transactional export. The integration primer supplied describes coverage of transfer-portal entries and FBS programs but contains no records [13]. Every multi-year total that would require that export is therefore marked NR (Not Reported) rather than treated as zero. Verified 2026 examples establish the mechanism: Jeremiah Earby, listed as CB, Boise State to Michigan, dated October 14, 2026, classified as G5/FCS to P4 and as Pac-12 to Big Ten under 2026 alignment [5]. Caleb Moser, listed as LS, UAB to USC, dated September 9, 2026, classified as G5/FCS to P4 and as American Athletic to Big Ten [5]. Ty Benefield, Boise State defensive back to LSU, with 105 tackles among defensive backs nationally in 2025 [19]. Trey White, San Diego State defensive end to Texas Tech, and Adam Trick, Miami (Ohio) defensive end to Texas Tech [19]. The CFBTrack page containing the Earby and Moser rows is a filtered 2026 Big Ten view showing 765 records, last updated October 14, 2026, with the newest record 16 days old and 91 records with unlisted destinations [5]. The 765 figure measures the size of the filtered board, not the number of G6 players taken by Big Ten schools, and the page cannot establish a complete October 30 snapshot [5]. Macro-level portal volume is reported with different scopes and dates and cannot be merged: ESPN reported more than 6,700 Division I entrants during the January 2026 window, which opened January 2 and closed for most players January 16 [16]. The same ESPN article also refers to more than 6,500 Division I players since January 2 [16]. A North Carolina tracker citing ESPN reported more than 4,900 FBS players and more than 3,200 FCS players entered during 2024-25 [4]. A non-major affiliate page claimed 3,264 FBS scholarship entrants in the prior cycle, approximately 3,300 in 2026, 76% signing with a new school in 2026 (85% in the prior cycle), 53 players signed by Oklahoma State, and 114 G6 all-conference players moving upward including 48 first-team selections [2]. Those figures are single-source, from a non-qualifying outlet under the sourcing rules, and are quarantined as unverified claims, not findings. Coaching movement is corroborated in one major-outlet case: Matt Campbell arrived at Penn State and brought nearly two dozen transfers from Iowa State, with quarterback Rocco Becht (39 starts at Iowa State) as the nucleus and a portal class approaching 40 players [19]. Kyle Whittingham leaving Utah for Michigan after two decades is documented as a P4-to-P4 move [8][19]. Competitive resilience varies. ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) rankings reported by Mountain West Connection show New Mexico improving from No. 128 in 2022 to No. 39 in 2026, and Boise State moving from No. 54 in 2022 to No. 28 in 2026 [10]. Those rankings measure team strength, not identified transfer raids, and cannot establish causation. The NCAA Division I Board of Directors adopted roster-limit changes on June 23, 2025, effective July 1, 2025, codifying the House settlement [15]. Football's roster limit is 105 players for participating schools [7][14]. Qualifying designated student-athletes do not count against the limit for the duration of eligibility, so 105 is not a hard ceiling [7][15]. A modeled contraction from an average roster of about 128 [11] to 105 implies displacement, but the modeled figure conflicts with broader estimates and is labeled as modeled. Bottom line: The Group of Six is exposed to verified upward extraction to the Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12 in 2026 [5][19], operates under a 105-man cap with exceptions [7][14][15], and shows examples of programs improving on advanced metrics while operating in a fluid market [10]. The evidence does not support a complete league-by-league or school-by-school measurement of exposure. Definitions Applied Upward transfer: G6 program to P4 program. Downward transfer: P4 program to G6 program. Lateral transfer: G6 to G6. Impact player: Started at least half of team games the prior season, earned all-conference honors, or carried a top-tier portal rating in the data source. The measure used is stated where applied; without player-level starts, awards, and ratings, impact balances are NR. Classification: Every school is classified by its 2026 conference, with historical affiliation noted where realignment changes interpretation. Part 1 — The Size of the Flow Table 1.1 — Portal Movement Summary, 2021-22 Through 2026 Portal Cycle Upward Transfers (G6 → P4) Downward Transfers (P4 → G6) Lateral Transfers (G6 → G6) Net Raw Balance (Lost Upward Minus Gained Downward) Impact-Player Net Balance 2021-22 NR NR NR NR NR 2022-23 NR NR NR NR NR 2023-24 NR NR NR NR NR 2024-25 NR NR NR NR NR 2025-26 NR NR NR NR NR 2026 cycle NR NR NR NR NR Full period total NR NR NR NR NR Structural reason for NR: No CollegeFootballData.com transfer-record export or query output was supplied. The supplied page describes the API as covering transfer-portal entries among other FBS datasets but provides no rows to count [13]. CFBTrack states coverage from 2021 forward with origin, destination, rating, and impact fields, but the supplied view displays only the 2026 Big Ten filtered board and does not provide six-cycle cross-conference totals [5]. The impact-player definition cannot be applied without player-level starts, honors, or ratings. Table 1.2 — Reported Portal Populations (Different Scopes — Do Not Blend) Figure Population Outlet and Date More than 6,700 entrants Division I, January 2026 window (Jan. 2 to Jan. 16 for most players) ESPN, 2026 cycle reporting [16] More than 6,500 entrants Division I since Jan. 2 (same cycle, alternate phrasing in same article) ESPN, 2026 cycle reporting [16] More than 4,900 entrants, plus more than 3,200 FCS entrants FBS and FCS, 2024-25 season, per ESPN reporting cited in tracker NCFootballNews, updated Feb. 27, 2026, citing ESPN [4] 3,264 prior-cycle and ~3,300 in 2026; 85% prior-cycle and 76% in 2026 receiving aid at new school; 114 G6 all-conference upward movers Claimed FBS scholarship population, undated methodology Non-major affiliate page, single-source unverified, quarantined [2] 765 tracked players, 674 with destinations, 88% commitment rate, 91 available or unlisted, latest date Oct. 14, 2026 Filtered 2026 Big Ten board only, stale by 16 days at last update CFBTrack, last updated Oct. 14, 2026 [5] Plain-language summary The portal processes thousands of transactions per cycle, but the counts measure different populations [16][4][5]. ESPN's Division I January-window figures [16] cannot be reconciled with FBS-only figures for 2024-25 [4] or with unverified affiliate claims about FBS scholarship entrants [2] without knowing definitions and deduplication. The 765 CFBTrack records are a filtered, stale Big Ten view, not a league-wide flow metric [5]. No raw-count or impact-player net balance for the Group of Six can be calculated from the supplied material. Part 2 — League by League Table 2.1 — Conference Normalization and Poaching Exposure G6 Conference (2026 Alignment) Upward Losses Downward Gains Net Balance Football Members (2026) Losses Per Member Poaching Severity Rank American (American Athletic through July 2025 [18]) NR NR NR NR NR NR Conference USA NR NR NR NR NR NR Mid-American Conference NR NR NR NR NR NR Mountain West NR NR NR NR NR NR Pac-12 NR NR NR NR NR NR Sun Belt NR NR NR NR NR NR Structural reason for NR: Transaction-level conference logs are absent. Calculating per-member rates without those logs would violate the prohibition on inference. Realignment normalization audit Conference membership changed materially during the observation window. The Athletic, dated July 1, 2024, reported 15 FBS schools changing conferences in summer 2024, following four Sun Belt changes in 2022 and 14 additional FBS changes in 2023 — 33 total FBS alignment shifts since the 2021 Texas-Oklahoma announcement, with FBS growing from 130 to 134 teams in that span [9]. That article omits 2025-26 moves by date. The Pac-12 lost ten legacy members ahead of 2024-25 [18][9]. The rebuilt 2026 Pac-12 consists of eight football members: Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Utah State, and Texas State, plus Gonzaga as a non-football member [18]. The Mountain West movers are five schools (Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Utah State), not six; Texas State arrives from the Sun Belt [18]. Assigning historical portal departures to 2026 containers creates classification distortion: departures from legacy Pac-12 institutions before 2024 moved within or between power structures, whereas post-2024 Pac-12 transactions reflect Group of Six dynamics [9][18]. Other 2026 realignment breaks affecting classification include UTEP moving from C-USA to the Mountain West, Northern Illinois moving football to the Mountain West, North Dakota State joining the Mountain West as football-only, Louisiana Tech moving from C-USA to the Sun Belt, UMass joining the MAC, and Delaware and Missouri State joining C-USA [18]. Plain-language summary No conference can responsibly be ranked as most or least raided. The Pac-12 presents a particular classification problem because its 2026 eight-team football membership differs entirely from its pre-2024 membership [18][9]. Without player-level records identifying both the origin season and the 2026 conference of each school, league-by-league comparisons are not possible. Part 3 — Who Does the Raiding Table 3.1 — Verified P4 Inflow Samples (2026 Cycle) Origin Conference (2026 Alignment) → Destination ACC Big Ten Big 12 SEC Notre Dame Total Upward Losses American NR ≥1 verified sample (Moser, UAB → USC, Sep. 9, 2026 [5]) NR NR NR NR Conference USA NR NR NR NR NR NR Mid-American NR NR (see notes on Northern Illinois classification) NR NR NR NR Mountain West NR NR NR NR NR NR Pac-12 NR ≥1 verified sample (Earby, Boise State → Michigan, Oct. 14, 2026 [5]) NR ≥1 verified sample (Benefield, Boise State → LSU [19]) NR NR Sun Belt NR ≥1 verified sample (Hendrick, James Madison → UCLA, Aug. 20, 2026 [5]) ≥1 verified sample (White, San Diego State → Texas Tech [19]) NR NR NR Mid-American origin listed as Sacramento State → Maryland [5] NR ≥1 sample with anomalous origin label (see note) NR NR NR NR Total Inflow NR NR NR NR NR NR Notes on Table 3.1: CFBTrack labels Earby's origin as Pac-12 because Boise State is a 2026 Pac-12 member, and Moser's origin as American Athletic [5]. The conference was renamed American in July 2025 [18]. Earby is listed as CB with immediate eligibility and impact score 21.20; Moser is listed as LS with impact 7.40; both profiles show limited matching (Earby profile not matched) and are single-source entries [5]. Both are dated September-October 2026, not January-window moves. James Madison is classified as Sun Belt to Big Ten for Trent Hendrick (LB, James Madison → UCLA, Aug. 20, 2026) [5]. Northern Illinois to Illinois (James Finley IV, S, Mar. 25, 2026) is labeled Mountain West to Big Ten in the CFBTrack view, reflecting a 2026 football-only Mountain West affiliation for Northern Illinois [5][18]. Historical MAC affiliation must be noted to avoid misattribution. Sacramento State to Maryland (Cardell Williams, QB, May 30, 2026) is labeled Mid-American to Big Ten in the view [5]; Sacramento State's 2026 football-only affiliation is with the MAC [18], but the label is anomalous against the school's FCS history and is flagged as a data-quality caveat rather than a pipeline finding. ESPN documents Benefield (Boise State → LSU), White (San Diego State → Texas Tech), and Trick (Miami-Ohio → Texas Tech) as Group of Six defensive additions in top-25 portal classes [19]. Cross-check count: Two directly documented upward G6 transactions (Earby and Moser) were cross-checked against CFBTrack's 2026 Big Ten clearinghouse [5]. No CollegeFootballData.com rows were supplied for comparison [13]. Table 3.2 — Conflicting Program-Level Inflow Claims (Side by Side, Not Blended) Program Claim Outlet and Date Oklahoma State incoming transfers 53 players signed Non-major affiliate page, no date, single-source unverified [2] Oklahoma State incoming transfers 49 transfers, including 17 from North Texas ESPN, 2026 cycle reporting [16] Penn State imported transfers Nearly two dozen from Iowa State; class approaching 40 players ESPN, 2026 cycle reporting [19] Penn State imported transfers 23 players moved with Matt Campbell Non-major affiliate page, no date [2]; corroborated in substance by ESPN's nearly two dozen figure [19] Plain-language summary The verified evidence shows Big Ten programs taking at least some Group of Six players, with Michigan acquiring Earby from Boise State and USC acquiring Moser from UAB in September-October 2026 [5], plus SEC and Big 12 intake of Boise State, San Diego State, and Miami (Ohio) defenders [19]. No complete origin-destination matrix across the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and Notre Dame can be constructed. Power Four conference totals, individual-program rankings, and geographic pipeline dependence are all NR. Part 4 — School by School Table 4.1 — Program-Level Extraction and Retention Samples Program (2026 Conference) Upward Losses (to P4) Impact Players Lost Downward Gains (from P4) Full-Period Net Balance Boise State (Pac-12 in 2026 [18]) ≥2 verified samples (Earby to Michigan [5]; Benefield to LSU [19]) NR (starts/honors/ratings not supplied for impact test) NR NR UAB (American in 2026 [18]) ≥1 verified sample (Moser to USC [5]) NR NR NR San Diego State (Pac-12 in 2026 [18]) ≥1 verified sample (White to Texas Tech [19]) NR NR NR Miami (Ohio) (MAC) ≥1 verified sample (Trick to Texas Tech [19]) NR NR NR New Mexico (Mountain West) NR NR ≥1 documented P4 arrival path (Jacobs from Arizona State to New Mexico, then to Utah State [21]) NR All other G6 institutions NR NR NR NR Top 10 most raided programs: NR. Clearinghouse records do not provide complete, verified institution-level counts across 2021-2026. Top 10 least raided programs: NR. Structural data limitations prevent setting an auditable lower-bound threshold. Notable documented player movements Jeremiah Earby (CB): Boise State → Michigan (Big Ten), record dated Oct. 14, 2026, G5/FCS to P4 [5]. Single-source, profile not matched. Caleb Moser (LS): UAB → USC (Big Ten), record dated Sep. 9, 2026, G5/FCS to P4 [5]. Single-source. Ty Benefield (DB): Boise State → LSU (SEC), 2026 cycle, seventh-most tackles (105) among defensive backs nationally in 2025 [19]. Trey White (DE): San Diego State → Texas Tech (Big 12), 2026 cycle [19]. Adam Trick (DE): Miami (Ohio) → Texas Tech (Big 12), 2026 cycle [19]. Trent Hendrick (LB): James Madison (Sun Belt) → UCLA (Big Ten), dated Aug. 20, 2026 [5]. Javen Jacobs (WR/All-Purpose): Walk-on at Arizona State to New Mexico, then followed coaching move to Utah State; posted 405 rushing yards and 333 receiving yards on 38 catches with seven touchdowns in the regular season at Utah State [21]. This is a P4-to-G6-to-G6 path, not a G6-to-P4 starter case, and any all-conference framing is unsupported. Plain-language summary The supplied sources contain several verified upward samples involving Boise State, UAB, San Diego State, Miami (Ohio), and James Madison, and one verified downward-then-lateral path into New Mexico and Utah State [5][19][21]. A complete school-by-school ledger for all Group of Six programs, impact-player losses under the defined test, and full-period net balances are NR, not zero, because player-level starts, awards, and ratings are absent. Part 5 — Coaches Table 5.1 — G6 Head Coach Departures to P4 Programs and Aftermath Coach Departing G6 Program Destination P4 Program Announcement Date Buyout Paid Pre-Departure Record Season +1 Record Season +2 Record Subsequent Player Portal Wave Matt Campbell Iowa State (Big 12 — P4, not G6; included to correct pipeline attribution) Penn State (Big Ten) NR NR NR NR NR Nearly two dozen Iowa State transfers to Penn State; class approaching 40; QB Rocco Becht (39 starts) [19]. Corroborated, not single-source. Alex Golesh South Florida (American) Auburn (SEC) NR NR NR NR NR Claim of South Florida players following, including QB Byrum Brown (4,166 yards, 42 TDs in 2025), per 2026 portal-class reporting [19]; full wave count NR. Kyle Whittingham Utah (Big 12 — P4) to Michigan (Big Ten) Michigan NR NR NR NR NR Utah-to-Michigan defensive transfers including John Henry Daley and Smith Snowden [19]; P4-to-P4 move, not G6-to-P4 [8][19]. Jamey Chadwell group Liberty (C-USA) None documented to P4 in supplied sources — — 25-13 record at school cited in primer [8] NR NR NR Full G6-to-P4 system ledger (2021-22 through 2026) NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR Structural reason for NR in ledger fields: Complete transactional ledgers of G6-to-P4 head-coaching transitions, executed buyout sums, and verified multi-year post-departure win-loss records are not present in the supplied sources. USA Today salary data lists 2025 total pay for selected coaches (for example, Chadwell at $5,936,509 at Liberty) but does not provide announcement dates or buyouts paid for transitions [22]. Additional coaching context from the supplied primer, flagged as single-source where applicable: The primer lists Liberty's Chadwell, Georgia State's Dell McGee, Middle Tennessee's Derek Mason, and UTEP's Scott Walden among G6 hot-seat coaches, with buyout structures described in general terms (for example, McGee at $1.66 million described as 100% of remaining salary) [8]. Those figures are single-source primer claims. The primer notes 29 coaching changes in the prior cycle [8]. That figure is single-source. Coordinator departures to P4 programs, where reported, are NR as a system measure. Whether head-coach departures were followed by an unusual player-exit wave beyond the Campbell-Penn State case cannot be determined without next-cycle program-level exit counts. Plain-language summary The best-documented coach-linked portal wave is Campbell to Penn State with nearly two dozen Iowa State transfers, corroborated by ESPN [19]. The affiliate-page claim of 23 players [2] is consistent with that corroborated figure in substance and is not treated as unverified in isolation. Whittingham to Michigan is a confirmed P4-to-P4 move with player follow-on [8][19]. A complete G6-to-P4 head-coach ledger with dates, buyouts, and two-season aftermaths is NR. Part 6 — Roster Dynamics and Structural Sustainability Table 6.1 — Competitive Trajectory of Selected Programs (ESPN FPI as Reported) Program 2022 FPI 2023 FPI 2024 FPI 2025 FPI 2026 FPI Context New Mexico 128 120 107 78 39 +69 vs. 2022-25 average; +39 vs. 2025 [10] Boise State 54 47 27 55 28 +18 vs. average; +27 vs. 2025 [10] Fresno State 57 79 81 85 63 +13 vs. average; +22 vs. 2025 [10] Oregon State 19 21 96 111 60 +2 vs. average; +51 vs. 2025 [10] Washington State 55 51 65 64 102 -43 vs. average; -38 vs. 2025 [10] Utah State 109 105 110 80 96 +5 vs. average; comparison complicated by coaching change (Mendenhall to Utah State) [10][21] The FPI series is verified against Mountain West Connection reporting [10]. The series measures broader team strength and realignment context, not identified transfer raids. Table 6.2 — FBS-to-FCS Transfer Volume (Spring and Summer Growth Within Year) Measurement Interval Tracked FBS-to-FCS Transfers Reporting Source and Status Late March 2022 → Late Summer 2022 256 → 520 HERO Sports, undated, single-source [11] Early April 2023 → Late Summer 2023 284 → 546 HERO Sports, undated, single-source [11] Mid-March 2024 → Late Summer 2024 340 → 830 HERO Sports, undated, single-source [11] Current offseason to date (no end date given) About 388 HERO Sports, undated, single-source [11] HERO Sports also reported that the average FBS roster size was approximately 128 players before the new roster limits [11]. That figure is single-source. Table 6.3 — 105-Man Roster Limit (Verified Core, Modeled Effect Separated) Element Value / Status Source NCAA adoption date and effective date Adopted June 23, 2025; effective July 1, 2025 NCAA.org [15] Football roster limit (participating schools) 105 players NCSA [7]; CBS Sports [14] Scholarship treatment No sport-specific caps for opt-in schools; scholarships may be offered to any or all rostered players at school discretion NCAA.org [15]; NCSA [7]; CBS Sports [14] Designated student-athlete exception Qualifying athletes on roster/eligibility records before April 7, 2025 (or promised spots before that date) do not count against limit for remainder of eligibility, even if transferring to another participating school NCSA [7]; NCAA.org references legislated exceptions [15] Prior FBS scholarship cap 85 full scholarships plus walk-ons CBS Sports [14]; NCSA comparison table [7] Broad displacement cited across all sports Nearly 5,000 athletes expected to be cut (all sports, not football only) CBS Sports [14] Modeled football-only displacement (not reported) ~2,500 to ~3,000 if 128-player average [11] contracts to 105 across ~134 FBS programs (23 × 134 ≈ 3,082). Labeled modeled, not reported; conflicts with 5,000 all-sports figure [14]; 134 count reflects July 2024 FBS size [9] and 2026 membership differs [18]. Derived arithmetic; do not cite as reported The diagram compresses the dual shock described in the text: financial siphoning upward and cap-driven surplus downward meet in G6 churn, with restocking from FCS/JUCO and offloading to FCS. The cap node includes exceptions because designated athletes can exceed 105 [7][15]. Plain-language summary Some Group of Six programs improved substantially on FPI while operating in a fluid market, notably New Mexico and Boise State between 2022 and 2026 [10]. FBS-to-FCS offloading data show within-year growth culminating in 830 transfers by late summer 2024, up from 520 in 2022, but those are FBS-to-FCS totals from a single undated source, not G6 replacement totals [11]. The 105-man limit creates a dual shock — releasing surplus P4 talent downward while capping G6 developmental rosters — but the 105 figure operates with designated-athlete exceptions [7][14][15]. No school-level test of whether heavily raided programs withstand losses better or worse than lightly raided programs is possible; win-percentage-before-and-after comparisons for the ten most raided programs are NR because the ten cannot be identified. Part 7 — Money and Retention Table 7.1 — Documented Financial Benchmarks (Broader Market, Not G6-Specific Offers) Economic Metric Certified Value / Range Source and Context Elite P4 portal quarterback market $3,000,000 to $5,000,000 ESPN, 2026 cycle, industry sources; several agents [16] Elite P4 offensive tackle / defensive line deals $1,000,000 or more ESPN, 2026 cycle, several agents [16] Example premium tackle market Jordan Seaton (Colorado OT, No. 1 uncommitted in ESPN rankings) can essentially name price; visited Mississippi State ESPN, 2026 cycle [16] House revenue-sharing ceiling ~$20,500,000 in annual benefits (2025-26 initial cap, subject to adjustment) CBS Sports [14]; NCSA [7]; legal analysis describes up to roughly $20.5M [17] G6 public collective budgets NR No G6 institution release